The greatest sport on the planet is nearly back, and I’m here to tell you about the biggest storylines heading into the July 2026 Nagoya Basho.

The Injuries

The main story of 2026 in Sumo has been the catastrophic injuries. The list of rikishi who have missed time this year is both long and illustrious. Both yokozuna. Two ōzeki. Sekiwake. Komusubi. Established veterans. Rising stars. It’s a genuine who’s who of the banzuke. Sumo is a sport where everyone is injured all the time. Nagging injuries are simply part of the job. Ankles, knees, backs, elbows. Every rikishi is carrying something. It’s just the nature of the game. But, in my time as a fan I don’t recall a period where big injuries were this prevalent. And in some cases, particularly Takerufuji and Onosato whom I’ll talk about later, we’re talking about injuries that could alter the trajectory of entire careers. If you look at the banzuke for this basho there is one glaring omission, that being Wakatakakage, the winner of May’s top division tournament, forced to kyūjō thanks to compartment syndrome caused by an injury sustained in training. The reigning yūshō winner isn’t even here. I’m just so tired man. I love this sport, I love these athletes. I want to see the best competing against the best while they’re at their best. And it feels like we haven’t had that in a long time. I know there will never be a tournament where everyone is completely healthy. That’s just not how sumo works. But it’d be nice, just once, to get a basho where the biggest story isn’t who’s missing from the dohyō. 

The Yokozuna

It’s been a weird run as of late for the men at the top of the banzuke. In his year and a half with the white rope, most people would agree Hoshoryu has had a disappointing run. Four runner-up finishes, two playoff defeats, three kyūjōs, and zero yūshōs. I’ve said my piece about Hoshoryu many times. His promotion came too early, and his run since has only reinforced that opinion. Six other wrestlers on the banzuke have as many or more top division yūshōs than the yokozuna. Hell, since his promotion just a year and a half ago, two of his contemporaries have equaled his career yūshō total within just that time frame. He needs to perform better, and we as fans need to hold him to a higher standard. Hoshoryu is a fan favorite, especially within the western sumo fandom, so as always there will be people who think I’m being too harsh. Maybe I am, but yokozuna is meant to be the absolute pinnacle of this sport. Yet Hoshoryu’s trophy cabinet is barren compared to even some mid-tier ōzeki. He’s only 27 years old. He’s in his prime and still has plenty of time to destroy my narrative about him. But man, we’ve been waiting. It’s long overdue. At some point, Hoshoryu, the results need to start matching the rank. Please prove me wrong.

Onosato, on the other hand, is a different story. He has gone a step further than Hoshoryu and already proven his rank. Five top division yūshō in two and a half years. But in November of last year, something changed. During his Day 14 bout with ōzeki Kotozakura, he appeared to injure his shoulder. The injury meant he had to withdraw from Day 15, despite being still in contention for the yūshō. He returned in January and put together a respectable 10-5 record, but anyone watching could see the shoulder was still bothering him, if not being made worse by competing through it. It all came to a head in March when he started the basho 0-3, the worst start by an active yokozuna in seven years. After Day 3, he once again went kyūjō. He then missed the entire May tournament as well. The problem is that Onosato’s injury isn’t one that gets better with rest. He needs surgery. But, as I’ll discuss later with Takerufuji, that’s just not how things are done in sumo. Because of that, I’m worried we’re watching a great yokozuna crumble before our eyes. He’s only 26 years old, arguably not even in his prime yet, but we may have already seen his peak. God, I truly hope not.

This basho is going to say a lot about both men moving forward. Can Hoshoryu finally prove himself as a yokozuna? And can Onosato either fight through the injury well enough to continue the trajectory of his remarkable early career, or is the end coming far too soon for our lovable 75th yokozuna?

Kirishima’s Yokozuna Run

I finally get to talk about something positive. Kirishima has had an incredible resurgence this year. Dating back to November of last year, he’s won at least 11 matches in four straight tournaments. He capped that run by winning the March basho with a 12-3 record, claiming the third yūshō of his career. More importantly, that November to March stretch gave him the magic number of 33 wins across three basho, earning him promotion back to ōzeki. Kirishima had originally lost the rank two years earlier in May 2024, making him just the third wrestler since the introduction of the kadoban system in 1969 to go through the full process of earning promotion to ōzeki twice, joining Kaiketsu and Terunofuji. And in May of this year, his first tournament back as an ōzeki, Kirishima went on a second straight 12-3 run, ending with a bitter playoff defeat to Wakatakakage. Though he was unable to win the May basho, the result set him up for another yokozuna run. Typically, an ōzeki needs back-to-back yūshō, or equivalent results, such as a playoff loss or a stellar runner-up finish, to earn promotion to yokozuna. Well, Kirishima is back at ōzeki, and he reached the playoff in May, so this seems as good a time as ever to make one final push for the sport’s highest rank. The thing is, this isn’t Kirishima’s first attempt at a yokozuna run. After winning his second top division championship in November 2023, Kirishima entered the following January with genuine yokozuna aspirations. By Day 13, he’d done everything he needed to do, sitting at 11-2 alongside Terunofuji and Kotozakura, then still competing as Kotonowaka, in the yūshō race. Day 14 was a setback as he fell to the future ōzeki. Not ideal, but hardly fatal. A win on Day 15 would still force a playoff. The only problem was that his final opponent was Terunofuji. Not only was he the lone yokozuna on the banzuke, but Kirishima had never beaten him. He entered the match 0-10 against the Yokozuna. Was this the moment he would finally slay his greatest rival, force a playoff, and take one last step toward the white rope? Oh god no. Terunofuji absolutely destroyed him. For a long time afterwards it felt like Kirishima was never the same, like Terunofuji had completely stolen his soul that day. In March he put up a pretty bad 5-10 record, placing himself in kadoban status, then started the May tournament 1-5 before withdrawing on Day 7. Those less than stellar results cost him his ōzeki rank. Over the next eight tournaments his results were mixed, ranging from a pretty great 12-3 in September 2024 to a disappointing 6-9 in September 2025. It felt like the dream was dead and that Kirishima had settled into life as just another upper maegashira or sekiwake, a very good rikishi, but no longer someone you’d seriously discuss as a future yokozuna. Then November 2025 happened, and everything started falling into place once again. Heading into the July 2026 tournament, Kirishima once again finds himself on the doorstep of yokozuna promotion. If my research is correct, only two men have ever been promoted to yokozuna without winning either of the tournaments considered for promotion, most notably Futahaguro in 1986 and then Wakanohana in 1978. I highly doubt Kirishima will become the third. After his playoff loss in May, I would assume another runner-up finish probably won’t be enough. To earn the white rope, he likely needs to win this tournament outright. And with the way he’s been wrestling as of late, alongside the weirdness that is 2026 sumo thanks to injuries and other outside factors, that yūshō isn’t out of the picture. I wrote after his playoff defeat to Wakatakakage in May that, even at his best, Kirishima still falls just short of that truly elite level. But sometimes you don’t need to be elite. Sometimes you just need to be lucky. 

Atamifuji Excellence

Atamifuji has remained one of the most beloved members of the banzuke ever since his debut. He just exudes so much joy that it’s near impossible to hate him. Despite that, his top division career has been a bit of a mixed bag. He burst onto the scene after his second promotion, reaching the playoff in September 2023 before ultimately falling to Takakeisho. He followed that up with a second straight runner-up finish in November. But that’s where the fun stopped for Atomic. He’d go 10 tournaments before reaching double digit wins again, a stretch that included six make-koshi. But Atamifuji never gave up hope. In July last year he went 11-4, earning another runner-up finish, and in January he reached the playoff once again, this time losing to Aonishiki. Those results earned him promotion to the san’yaku ranks for the first time, and at komosubi, he went 9-6 which is incredibly impressive, as we’ll talk about later. He was then promoted again, this time to Sekiwake, and once again finished 9-6. This is arguably the best sustained run of his career so far. While it hasn’t reached the highs of those back to back runner-up performances in 2023, these are the kinds of tournaments that build great rikishi. Atamifuji is just 23 years old, and while he’ll need to reach another level to get promoted to ōzeki, his current sustained success in the san’yaku ranks paints a very bright future for our lovable Atomic.

Aonishiki

Anyone who follows me is well aware of my love for Aonishiki. I was arguably late to the party, really falling in love with him during his Makushita run before stamping him with my future yokozuna tag while he was still in Jūryō. And us Aonishiki fans had it good for a while. Six straight double digit basho, including a runner-up playoff loss in July last year and back to back yūshō in November 2025 and January 2026. Everything seemed perfectly set up for a yokozuna run. But in March something just seemed off. In the first week alone Aonishiki lost to Yoshinofuji, Churanoumi, Ōhō, and Atamifuji, effectively ending any realistic promotion hopes. Things never really recovered either. He beat eventual yūshō winner Kirishima on Day 14, setting up a make or break Day 15 bout with Yokozuna Hōshōryū, a wrestler he had previously dominated, holding a perfect 5-0 record against him. All Aonishiki had to do was beat the one man he’d never lost to and he’d salvage the tournament with an 8-7 kachi-koshi. But, as I said earlier, something was off. Hōshōryū finally got the better of him, handing Aonishiki his eighth loss and the first make-koshi of his career. That result also left him kadoban heading into the May basho, meaning another losing tournament would cost him his ōzeki rank. After March, it was revealed that Aonishiki had fractured a toe on his left foot. For a wrestler whose style is built almost entirely around impeccable balance, that was a nightmare injury. Still, a broken toe isn’t usually the end of the world, and most expected him to dust himself off, return in May, and pick up where he’d left off before the injury. But Aonishiki never even made it to the dohyō in May. Just days before the tournament it was announced that he’d suffered an ankle injury in training, forcing him to withdraw before the basho even began. That guaranteed a second straight losing tournament and, because he was already kadoban, an inevitable demotion from ōzeki. Now, two months later, Aonishiki appears ready for Nagoya. At least I hope he is. If he reaches 10 wins this basho he’ll earn immediate promotion back to ōzeki. Anything less and he’ll have to do it the hard way with the traditional 33 wins across three tournaments. If he’s healthy, I have no doubt he’ll get back there. Every time he’s been healthy he’s reached double digits. But if he’s still carrying those injuries, I’d hate to see him make them even worse chasing his rank. He’s talented enough to make that run again. Let’s just hope he’s healthy, because when Aonishiki gets going, there really isn’t anyone more fun to watch in sumo.

Yoshinofuji’s Continued Upward Trajectory

I’ve been a big investor of Yoshinofuji stock ever since he won back to back Jūryō yūshōs early last year. Pretty early on I felt like we were watching a future yokozuna at work. His debut top division tournament backed up those thoughts. An 11-4 record as well as a runner up prize. Unfortunately since then he’d been unable to reach those same heights again. 4 straight single digit winning tournaments, as well as a make-koshi in March. Some started to doubt the rikishi formerly known as Kusano. But in May he sent those doubters packing. An 11-4 basho that included a 9 match win streak, he bounced back incredibly well from his first career make-koshi. His first double digit winning basho since July last year earned him promotion into the san’yaku ranks as a Komosubi. Sitting at that rank, he now faces the hardest challenge in sumo. This upcoming tournament will not be easy for him, not because Yoshinofuji isn’t talented, but because the komosubi schedule is a brutal one. A komosubi is forced to run the gauntlet from Day 1. In the opening week they have to face both yokozuna, every ōzeki, and the top sekiwake. Before most wrestlers have to stop to take a breath, a komusubi has already spent the week fighting the very best rikishi in the sport. It’s why so many top flight rikishi spend their time jumping between the top maegashira ranks and the komosubi rank. It’s not an indictment of their ability, it’s just an incredibly difficult rank to find success at. But the wrestlers who do succeed there are usually the ones who go on to become truly great. It’s time to find out if Yoshinofuji is one of those rikishi. And hey, even if he flames out, he’s still only 25. The future remains bright either way. 

Takerufuji’s Return

It’s been a little under 2 and a half years since Takerufuji made history, becoming the first debutant in over 100 years to win the top division championship. An extraordinary feat doubled by it being only his 10th ever professional tournament, making him the fastest rikishi to ever win a top division title. It was an incredible career start for a wrestler many were predicting to rule over the sumo landscape for the coming years. In the two years since, though, Takerufuji has had a lot of ups and downs. Well actually he’s had very few ups, and quite a few downs. Immediately following Takerufuji winning it all in March, he had to sit out the subsequent tournament thanks to an injury sustained on Day 14 of his yūshō run. This kyūjō meant he was demoted back down to Jūryō. In the next tournament he sat out 12 of the 15 days, only competing in 3 bouts to make sure he didn’t fall even further down the banzuke. Returning seemingly injury free in September he won his second Jūryō championship with a clean 13-2 record meaning he’d finally return to the top division in November, 8 months after his debut tournament.  He went 10-5 in November, repeated it in January, then followed it with a 9-6 in March. Three straight injury-free kachi-koshis. Maybe not quite the numbers many expected after his debut yūshō, but solid winning tournaments that slowly moved him up the banzuke. That’s when things began to unravel. May wasn’t so lucky, he had his first bad tournament in the top division finishing 6-9. Losing tournaments happen, most rikishi will tell you that. Nothing to worry about. Just get back on the dohyō and do your thing. It’ll all be okay. But, then came July. He began the tournament okay, going 3-2 in the first 5 days. Nothing to write home about but not terrible. However on Day 6 disaster struck. In a win over Sadanoumi, he appeared to injure his right arm. A later diagnosis indicated a bicep tear. He gutted through it, but due to the injury he’d go on to lose 5 of his next 6 matches before pulling out all together on Day 13. That injury is where the problems began. He sat out September thankfully, but the injury is not gonna heal just by sitting out a single tournament. Those familiar with sumo understand the rigorous training these athletes go through every day. There’s no way Takerufuji or his Oyakata was gonna let him sit out too long nor were they ever going to opt into surgery. So that injury just never got a chance to heal. He returned in November once again demoted to Jūryō this time with his right arm heavily taped, as if that will help with anything. He managed an 8-7. Then another 8-7 in January. And another in March. Three straight kachi-koshis, yes, but incredibly underwhelming for someone who once looked destined to become the face of the sport. Watching him wrestle, it’s obvious he can’t use his right arm the way he should. His 11-4 tournament in May means his re-promotion to the top division. And I just don’t know how to feel about it. Unlike his first return from injury demotion, there’s very little hope here. Everyone knows he’s a one-armed man, and the longer he continues like this the more unrecoverable the damage becomes. The hope for a bright Takerufuji future isn’t fading. It has faded. I hope at some point he and his heya can understand the situation he’s in, allow him to take the time off needed to recover and potentially come back as strong as he once was, but I highly doubt that that’s going to happen. Takerufuji’s story is one that gives us a glimpse into one of the worst sides of sumo: injury management. The refusal to take extended time off. The reluctance to embrace modern medicine. The willingness to sacrifice years of a wrestler’s career for the sake of getting him back on the dohyō as quickly as possible. I hope one day this sport can change its ways, but I’m not holding my breath. Until then cautionary tales like Takerufuji’s will continue to take place. 

A Couple of Debutants

The top division debutants this basho are Daiseizan, and Kazuma. Daiseizan is only the 2nd Chinese rikishi to make the top division, the first being Sōkokurai. He’s floated around Jūryō for the better part of two years and is not expected to be anything ground breaking. Kazuma on the other hand could be something special. He’s won tournament championships in four of the five sumo divisions he’s competed in including winning the Jūryō championship in May. He currently holds a career record of 61-17, never recording a make-koshi record. And at 452 pounds (205 kilograms), he’s become the new heaviest man in the top division. His story is also quite unique. After debuting at the bottom of Makushita 2 years ago during the Nagoya tournament in 2024, a torn ACL forced him to miss five straight tournaments almost right out of the gate, sending him all the way down to Jonokuchi. An almost hopeless situation.  But since then, slowly but surely, he’s climbed his way back. Returning in May of 2025 he’d go 7-0 to win the Jonokuchi title. Next he’d go 6-1 in Jonidan earning his promotion to Sandanme where he’d once again go 7-0 winning the tournament championship. Another 7-0 title run, this time in Makushita, would mean his promotion to Jūryō. He’d spend 3 tournaments in Jūryō, 8-7 in January, 10-5 in March, then 12-3 in May, a record that would win him the ūryō championship and earn him his promotion to the top division. I’m personally very excited to see what Kazuma can do in the top division. He’s found success everywhere he has gone, let’s see if that success can find him now that he’s going to be fighting the best of the best.

Conclusion

All in all Nagoya looks to be another fun tournament, if not full of uncertainty. All the big names seem to be ready to go, outside of Wakatakakage, but questions mark surround the health of most of them. And in 2 weeks who truly knows what we will be talking about looking back on the 2026 Nagoya basho. A return to form for Onosato? Hoshoryu’s first yokozuna yusho? Aonishiki re-establishing himself as an ōzeki? A new yokozuna in Kirishima? Or someone completely out of left field coming in and running the table? Anything seems possible. And that’s what makes sumo great. I just hope all of the rikishi survive to see Tokyo in September.